Oxford: scientists study Covid-19 in Italy and the United Kingdom, they say it has already passed. What a peak Italy awaits?
A peak is expected in Italy which has probably already occurred , because the first case is the first of January. At Oxford sbugiardano the prediction model that included the catastrophe, and he discovers that the worst is probably already over, but check with the test population. For the Nobel Lewitt has been a very strong influence . While in Italy the scene is the television drama, and is thought to prolong the measures, there's news of empty ICU, and while other countries do not take measures such as the Italian and go towards normalization. Below the video the full text. Sign below for the abolition of illegal restrictions.
30 March 2020
let's talk about coronavirus the news is that the official forecast on the coronavirus trend was based on the wrong models, wrong because they say the Oxford scientists .
The researcher Gupta is the head of a team of researchers at Oxford University who has challenged the model of Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College of London . Basically Gupta and her researchers say that the mechanism of herd immunity that would develop was not considered in the Ferguson model. .
The model is wrong and practically in Oxford they say that only one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 will become ill enough to be hospitalized. , while most people will have only mild symptoms or no symptoms at all.
In practice, the Professor Gupta, I repeat, leads a team of researchers from Oxford University, in the study of the model suggests that the Corona virus has been present among us and has been circulating invisibly for at least a month earlier than suspected by concluding that at least half of the people in the UK have already been infected with Covid-19.
So you understand that we are here we count with a dropper of rationed pads only for sick people, ma al 99,9% of infected cases have only symptoms are mild or without symptoms , and we expect an apocalypse based on a wrong model.
This is because the original model did not consider a fact, namely, that a progression of 2,5, that is, a sick the next day it will have two the next day you'll 6… after ten days there are 2.600 infected, after 12 days 15.000 , As the number grows on the sixteenth day you 500.000 Infected but the next day you have a million and two hundred thousand, the next day you have almost three million , and so increased from the twentieth day 16 million to 40 millions …. of course these are the infections, He has yet to spend a few days because the illness and explode at some point you Captain hundreds of cases in one fell swoop of people with serious problems, making the graph looks like the beginning there is nothing, then boom, fast.
That's because at some point we had a run on the intensive care.
Caution but in Italy, taken off the case of bergamo (because something else has happened in Bergamo that we will analyze another time ) I understand that there is this rush to intensive care: begin to turn rumors that these new departments, which actually had to be done first, They are not so full thankfully .
Then the researcher and her team from Oxford University which is one of the best in the world as a university , He said that the calculations were wrong, because it is not considered the phenomenon of “herd immunity” or herd immunity, We must also consider that in the ladder of progression that we said, at some point people who have already been infected and have already passed the viral stage and have developed an immune defense, they develop the so-called herd immunity whereby the virus begins to slow down. And then the Gupta says that the notion of immunity of crude oil was not considered in the report of the Imperial College of London, then why Ferguson says and this would lead to the fact that, we are talking about the UK ( and even more so for Italy ) has already substantially acquired herd immunity through the unrecognized and untracked circulation of Covid-19 for more than two months.
In the case of Italy they might even be 3 months as we shall soon, and then basically the Gupta says esssere surprised that there was such a “unspeakable” acceptance of Imperial College model .
At these words, who are the 25 March, the day after Mr. Ferguson has made partial backtrack on its model, which provided 2 million two hundred thousand deaths in the United States and 500,000 in the UK if they had taken those containment measures that they have closed all at home. By adjusting the accounts turns out that the estimates now bring to predict that there will be 20 thousand or a lot less people will die Covid-19 in the UK. This based on the revised estimate and the containment measures taken by the British government, which of course have delayed a possible spike .
Now epidemiologists predict that UK hospitals will safely be able to withstand the impact without any emergency measures for covit patients 19, and estimate that 20.000 people, or much less, They will die from the virus itself .
So you understand that 500.000 deaths expected for the UK talk time 20.000 ? Much less than an annual flu .
That happens that if you are not reaching the peak (in Italy) the problem is that maybe it has already passed and let's see’ why.
The day 4 March on the Sun. 24 hours we talk about the Sacco di Milano study that there is evidence that the Corona virus was in Italy since January 1st and therefore the peak has presumably already passed around mid-February.
This is the conclusion one reaches from the scientific point of view.
The Sacco study was done by several scientists who verified that we already had cases on January 1st (in Italy) and even the first of January the epidemic in Italy had started which in fact also corresponds to the common perception that there were many pneumonia in the months of January and the beginning of February . Pneumonia that were treated normally and you know that this disease does not die almost as if treated appropriately,Because the Chinese the 17 March (here it is the link) have published the Phase III clinical trial demonstrating the functionality of Favipiravir, I made a video about this .
So the question is : What are we waiting for arrivals now? What are the reasons why you have not made the buffers ?
Why do not they do the test in the general population as how to suggest and propose the Oxford team ?
Most likely, given that that Oxford model was studied on Italy and the United Kingdom, in Italy we have already passed the
peak, most of the population has already contracted the virus, more than 50 percent, and unfortunately, like any strong influence, someone dies.
In the article I showed you there is the Nobel Prize winner Levitt who speaks and says that this is a disease of 4 A 8 times stronger than an influence but there will be no extinction of mankind nor a massacre.
then, I say that there are measures that can be justified under emergency, but there are measures, like that of 200 meters, that make no sense.
It makes no sense to keep people at home because someone else did not respect the safe distance.
If I go to the park with my son with whom maybe occasionally I sleep well and I play, certainly not infected nobody if I'm at a safe distance from other.
If I go to garden even one kilometer away , or in the social garden five kilometers away, and I'm far from the people, uninfected nobody. They are limitations of freedom , like that of 200 meters, meaningless from a scientific point of view and unconstitutional because they punish a person for not having committed the crime.
It must eventually punish those who break the distance and safety.
So now is the time to worry about our freedom , because our freedom has been excessively restricted by an unscientific method, disavowed the facts, disavowed by the data.
And it is time for us to start organizing ourselves to take back this freedom because perhaps there was some other idea behind all this., getting to instead create an emergency for a disease that now shows, said scientists from Oxford, but look, in Italy we have had D'Anna for a long time, Bassetti, Capua and many others who say that this disease is about like a flu.
So I want to know what's going on in Italian institutions .
Who are recommended ? Out of that Directive they are moving ?
It is certainly not that of science !
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