One of the most renowned American economists, Roubini, It makes the totally conform to those predictions I made over 1 year ago.
Ma riguardo l’Italia, non tiene presente che Ã¨ strutturalmente impossibileÂ abbassare le tasse sulle imprese, because this would require the downloading of social 10 million parasites assistenziati State. The “cleaning” del sistema italia non Ã¨ politicamente affrontabile da nessuno per cui non sarÃ fatta se non in minima quanto inutile parte.
Il risultato Ã¨ che l’italia Ã¨ condannata a restare ingessata come Ã¨ da 15 years, e scivolerÃ verso il terzo mondo fino a quando gli industriali veneti decideranno, forced by the situation, to become promoters of the revival of the independent Republic of Venetie.
( following article from http://mercatoliberonews.blogspot.com/2008/10/adesso-tocca-alle-banche-italiane.html )
“Now it's up to the Italian banks ". He said last night (5 pm New York time) Nouriel Roubini, Conference Call planetary Internet for members of RGE Monitor and organized by RiskMetrics “The Credit Crisis: How we got into the Current Mess and How We can Get out”.
Roubini has earned a reputation for “Cassandra” and authoritative international economist to have predicted, in unexpected times, the global financial crisis, and to be expected, a few months ago, even the failure of several large international banking groups. His website RGE Monitor is considered the first American financial channel.
In particular, Roubini, he did not name names, indicated as the next crisis to an Italian group "he has too much invested in countries such as Turkey and Hungary".
For the New York-based economist at Italian banks they are obviously not the only ones at risk, ma tutti i gruppi bancari europei starebbero per essere colpiti dallo tsunami che si Ã¨ abbattuto sugli Stati Uniti d’America e che, after the UK and Ireland, starebbe per arrivare sull’Europa occidentale, with large and devastating violence.
“La crisi in Europa sarÃ peggiore di quella in USA”, He stressed Roubini. In Europe, dove giÃ Portogallo e Spagna sono ormai da mesi in una situazione di recessione, la crisi sarÃ piÃ¹ grave, because in the face of a high inflation in the presence of a heavy stagnation.
The ECB rates with trying to control the first problem, without any political control to try to boost the economy. In Italy, France and Spain, Roubini argued, ci sarÃ per tutto il 2009 recession and credit crunch, in addition to a particularly high inflation. Si entrerÃ quindi in una pesante stagflazione.
For the "Cassandra" of global finance, in the US and around the world, including China, dove la crescita si Ã¨ fermata e si prevede che dall’11% si scenda rapidamente verso il 6%, the next to fail will be the funds, starting from the smallest, that will disappear in hundreds, and then the big insurance and manage credit cards.
They remain standing are the largest groups, those whose collapse would have devastating effects on the entire system, They will have to adapt to regulation of some sort. The problem of the current crisis, said the American economist, concerns capitalization: Wachovia also suffers from this problem. "Banks fail because of insufficient capitalization and not for the crisis in credit management".
“The interbank market is completely frozen”, ha detto l’economista “We not made any exchange and there are over 3 Katherine dollars completely out of the banking market”. The problem concerns mainly the corporate sector where credit is completely frozen. “In just two weeks they will begin to shut down non-financial firms”, This is the gloomy prediction of Roubini.
So, how to get out "The Mess", from the “casino”? First of all in the next six months, In fact, we must do much in a hurry, it is essential to act in terms of fiscal policy of enterprises in traditional and non-traditional way.
Need, Moreover, spread on all deposits a "blanket insurance", which guarantees them. There is another problem, especially in Europe and even more in Italy: Roubini for it is going to give a real "tsunami" of money from the big international companies, who do not know where to invest it. In other words, la troppa liquiditÃ di alcune imprese a fronte della stretta creditizia per quelle piÃ¹ piccole Ã¨ un altro grande problema.
It 'possible that some large hedge funds they are managing all this money uncontrollably. Da qui lâ€™ immediata necessitÃ di controlli e regole.
And the mortgage and loan rates? come down heavily, says Roubini, and the prices will come down. While credit may be more expensive, especially for at-risk groups, without guarantees.
In other words hard times, with a generalized collapse of consumption. To ask: but where we invest now, in gold? Roubini responded: not in gold, but in the work.